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Five
Things the U.S. Can Learn from China
By Bill Powell / Shanghai
Thursday, Nov. 12, 2009
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1938671-1,00.html#ixzz0Wz958qyU
On the evening of Nov. 15, President
Barack Obama, the youthful leader of
one of the world's youngest
countries, begins his first visit to
China, among the world's most
ancient societies. Obama and his
Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, have
much to discuss. Nukes in Iran and
North Korea. China's surging
military spending. Trade imbalances.
Climate change.
But the visit comes at an awkward
moment for the U.S. China, despite
its 5,000-year burden of history,
has emerged as a dynamo of optimism,
experimentation and growth. It has
defied the global economic slump,
and the sense that it's the world's
ascendant power has never been
stronger. The U.S., by contrast,
seems suddenly older and frailer.
America's national mood is still in
a funk, its economy foundering, its
red-vs.-blue politics as rancorous
as ever. The U.S. may be one of the
world's oldest capitalist countries
and China one of the youngest, but
you couldn't blame Obama if he
leaned over to Hu at some point and
asked, "What are you guys doing
right?"
Could the world's lone but weary
superpower actually learn something
from China? It's a politically
incorrect question, of course. China
is an authoritarian nation; its
ruling Communist Party deals
ruthlessly with any challenge to its
hegemony. It remains, relatively
speaking, a poor, developing country
with huge problems to confront,
massive corruption and environmental
degradation being Nos. 1 and 1a.
Still, this is a moment of humility
for the U.S., and China is doing
some important things right. If the
U.S. were to ask the Chinese what it
could learn from their example, it
might gain some insight into what
it's doing right and wrong. Here are
five lessons from China's success
story:
1. Be Ambitious
One day this summer, Sean Maloney,
an executive vice president at
Intel, was bouncing from one
appointment to another in
northeastern China, speeding along
in a van traversing newly built
highways. He gazed out at one of the
world's biggest construction
projects: a network of high-speed
train lines covering 10,000 miles
(16,000 km) nationwide that China
is building. As far as the eye could
see, there sat vast concrete support
struts, one after another, exactly
246 ft. (75 m) apart. Each was full
of steel cables and weighed about
800 tons. "We used to build stuff
too," Maloney mused, unprompted.
"But now it's NIMBY [not in my
backyard] every time you try to do
something. Here," he joked, "it's
more like IMBY. There's stuff
happening here, everywhere and
always."
It's not just NIMBYism that
constrains the U.S. these days, of
course. America is close to tapped
out financially, with budget
deficits this year and next
exceeding $1 trillion and forecast
to remain above $500 billion through
2019. But sometimes the country
seems tapped out in terms of vision
and investment for the future.
Some economists believe that given
its stage of development, China
spends too much on expensive items
like high-speed rail lines. But step
back from the individual
infrastructure projects and the
debates about whether a given
investment is necessary, and what's
palpable in China is the sense of
forward motion, of energy. No
foreigner at least not one I've
met in five years of living here
even bothers denying it. And the
Chinese take it for granted. When a
brand-new six-lane highway opened in
suburban Shanghai in October, Zhong
Li Ping, who shuttles migrant
workers to the city and back to
their hometowns, said, "I don't know
what took them so long." In truth,
it took about two years roughly
the time it would take to get the
environmental and other regulatory
permits for a new highway in the
U.S. If, that is, you could get them
at all.
There's no direct translation into
Chinese of the phrase can-do spirit.
But yong wang zhi qian probably
suffices. Literally, it means "march
forward courageously." China has
and has had for years now a can-do
spirit that's unmistakable.
Americans know the phrase well. They
invented it. It used to define them.
Critics of the authoritarian Chinese
government would say it's a system
more accurately called "can do or
else." And they have a point. No one
in the U.S. would argue that it
should adopt China's dictatorial
style of government. America doesn't
need to displace tens of thousands
of people in order to build a
massive dam, as China did in Hubei
province from 1994 to 2006. (The
value of checks and balances is, in
fact, among the many things China
could learn from the U.S.) But you
don't have to be a card-carrying
communist to wonder how effectively
the U.S. develops and executes
ambitious projects. Ask James
McGregor. He's a former chairman of
the American Chamber of Commerce in
China and now a business consultant
who divides his time between the two
countries. "One key thing we can
learn from China is setting goals,
making plans and focusing on moving
the country ahead as a nation," he
says. "These guys have taken the old
five-year plans and stood them on
their head. Instead of deciding
which factory gets which raw
materials, which products are made,
how they are priced and where they
are sold, their planning now
consists of 'How do we build a
world-class silicon-chip industry in
five years? How do we become a
global player in
car-manufacturing?'"
Some
of this is the natural arc of a
huge, fast-growing country in the
process of modernization. The U.S.
in the late 19th century was nothing
if not what Intel's Maloney would
call an IMBY country. America was
ambitious. There's no secret formula
to help the nation get back its zeal
for what it used to enthusiastically
and sincerely call progress. But
even though the U.S. is a mature,
developed country, many economists
believe it has shortchanged
infrastructure investment for
decades. It possibly did so again in
this year's stimulus package. Just
$144 billion of the $787 billion
stimulus bill Congress passed
earlier this year went to direct
infrastructure spending. According
to IHS Global Insight, an
economic-consulting firm, U.S.
spending on transportation
infrastructure will actually decline
overall in 2009 when state budgets
are factored in this at a time
when the American Society of Civil
Engineers contends that the U.S.
should invest $1.6 trillion to
upgrade its aging infrastructure
over the next five years.
When the economic crisis hit China
late last year, by contrast, almost
half of the emergency spending
Beijing approved $585 billion
spread over two years was directed
at projects that accelerated China's
massive infrastructure build-out.
"That money went into the real
economy very quickly," says
economist Albert Keidel of the
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.
But it's not just emergency spending
on bridges, roads and high-speed
rail networks that's helping growth
in China. Patrick Tam, general
partner at Tsing Capital, a
venture-capital firm in Beijing,
says the government is aggressively
helping seed the development of new
green-tech industries. An example:
13 of China's biggest cities will
have all-electric bus fleets within
five years. "China is eventually
going to dominate the industry for
electric vehicles," Tam says, "in
part because the central government
has both the vision and the
financial wherewithal to make that
happen." Tam, a graduate of MIT and
the University of California,
Berkeley, says he does deals in
Beijing rather than Silicon Valley
these days "because I believe this
is where these new industries will
really take shape. China's got the
energy, the drive and the market to
do it." Isn't that the sort of thing
venture capitalists used to say
about the U.S.?
2. Education Matters
On a recent Saturday afternoon, at a
nice restaurant in central Shanghai,
Liu Zhi-he sat fidgeting at the
table, knowing that it was about
time for him to leave. All around
him sat relatives from an extended
family that had gathered for a
momentous occasion: the 90th
birthday of Liu's great-grandmother
Ling Shu Zhen, the still spry and
elegant matriarch of a sprawling
clan. But Liu had to leave because
it was time for him to go to school.
This Saturday, as he does every
Saturday, Liu was attending two
special classes. He takes a math
tutorial, and he studies English.
Liu is 7 years old.
A lot of foreigners and, indeed, a
fair number of Chinese believe
that the obsession (and that's the
right word) with education in China
is overdone. The system stresses
rote memorization. It drives kids
crazy aren't 7-year-olds supposed
to have fun on Saturday afternoons?
and doesn't necessarily prepare
them, economically speaking, for the
job market or, emotionally speaking,
for adulthood. Add to that the fact
that the system, while incredibly
competitive, has become corrupt.
All true and all, for the most
part, beside the point. After
decades of investment in an
educational system that reaches the
remotest peasant villages, the
literacy rate in China is now over
90%. (The U.S.'s is 86%.) And in
urban China, in particular, students
don't just learn to read. They learn
math. They learn science. As William
McCahill, a former deputy chief of
mission in the U.S. embassy in
Beijing, says, "Fundamentally, they
are getting the basics right,
particularly in math and science. We
need to do the same. Their kids are
often ahead of ours."
What the Chinese can teach are
verities, home truths that have
started to make a comeback in the
U.S. but that could still use a
push. The Chinese understand that
there is no substitute for putting
in the hours and doing the work. And
more than anything else, the kids in
China do lots of work. In the U.S.,
according to a 2007 survey by the
Department of Education, 37% of
10th-graders in 2002 spent more than
10 hours on homework each week.
That's not bad; in fact, it's much
better than it used to be (in 1980 a
mere 7% of kids did that much work
at home each week). But Chinese
students, according to a 2006 report
by the Asia Society, spend twice as
many hours doing homework as do
their U.S. peers.
Part of the reason is family
involvement. Consider Liu, the
7-year-old who had to leave the
birthday party to go to Saturday
school. Both his parents work, so
when he goes home each day, his
grandparents are there to greet him
and put him through his after-school
paces. His mother says simply, "This
is normal. All his classmates work
like this after school."
Yes, big corporate employers in
China will tell you the best
students coming out of U.S.
universities are just as bright as
and, generally speaking, far more
creative than their counterparts
from China's ιlite universities. But
the big hump in the bell curve the
majority of the school-age
population matters a lot for the
economic health of countries. Simply
put, the more smart, well-educated
people there are of the sort that
hard work creates the more
economies (and companies) benefit.
Remember what venture capitalist Tam
said about China and the
electric-vehicle industry. A single,
relatively new company working on
developing an electric-car battery
BYD Co. employs an astounding
10,000 engineers.
China, critics will point out,
doesn't produce (at least not yet)
many Nobel Prize winners. But don't
think the basic educational
competence of the workforce isn't a
key factor in its having become the
manufacturing workshop of the world.
It isn't just about cheap labor;
it's about smart labor. "Whether
it's line workers or engineers,
we're finding the candlepower of our
employees here as good as or better
than anywhere in the world," says
Nick Reilly, a top executive at
General Motors in Shanghai. "It all
starts with the emphasis families
put on the importance of education.
That puts pressure on the government
to deliver a decent system."
And the Chinese government responds
to that pressure in some intriguing
ways. It insists that primary-school
teachers in math and science have
degrees in those subjects. (Less
than half of eighth-grade math
teachers in the U.S. majored in
math.) There is a "master teacher"
program nationwide that provides
mentoring for younger teachers.
Zhang Dianzhou, a professor emeritus
of mathematics at East China Normal
University in Shanghai who
co-chaired a committee charged with
redesigning high school mathematics
programs across the country, says
recent changes have begun to reflect
more of a "real-world emphasis."
Computer-science courses, for
example, have been integrated into
the math curriculum for high school
students. And China is placing even
more importance on teaching young
students English and other foreign
languages. If you think China's
willingness to constantly fine-tune
its educational system is not going
to have much of an impact 20 years
from now, there's a 7-year-old boy
in Shanghai who'd be happy to
discuss the issue with you. In
English.
3. Look After the Elderly
It's hard to imagine two societies
that deal with their elderly as
differently as the U.S. and China.
And I can vouch for that firsthand.
My wife Junling is a Shanghai
native, and last month for the first
time we visited my father at a
nursing home in the U.S. She was
shaken by the experience and later
told me, "You know, in China, it's a
great shame to put a parent into a
nursing home." In China the social
contract has been straightforward
for centuries: parents raise
children; then the children care for
the parents as they reach their
dotage. When, for example, real
estate developer Jiang Xiao Li and
his wife recently bought a new,
larger apartment in Shanghai, they
did so in part because they know
that in a few years, his parents
will move in with them. Jiang's
parents will help take care of
Jiang's daughter, and as they age,
Jiang and his wife will help take
care of them. As China slowly
develops a better-funded and more
reliable social-security system for
retirees which it has begun the
economic necessity of generations
living together will diminish a bit.
But no one believes that as China
gets richer, the cultural norm will
shift too significantly.
To a degree, of course, three
generations living under one roof
has long happened in the U.S., but
in the 20th century, America became
a particularly mobile and rootless
society. It is hard to care for
one's parents when they live three
time zones away.
Home care for the elderly will most
likely make a comeback in the U.S.
out of sheer economic necessity,
however. The number of elderly
Americans will soar from 38.6
million in 2007 to 71.5 million in
2030. But, says Arnold Eppel, who
recently retired as head of the
department of aging in Baltimore
County, Maryland, "There won't be
enough spots for them" in the
country's overwhelmed nursing-home
system. Appreciating the magnitude
of the coming crisis, the U.S.
government has begun to respond. Two
new initiatives Nursing Home
Diversion and Money Follows the
Person expand subsidies for home
elder care, and the Veterans Health
Administration has just put in
effect its own similar initiative.
"The whole trend will be into home
care, because nursing homes are too
expensive," Eppel says, noting that
nursing-home care in the U.S. costs
about $85,000 annually per resident.
In China, senior-care costs are, for
the most part, borne by families.
For millions of poor Chinese, that's
a burden as well as a
responsibility, and it
unquestionably skews both spending
and saving patterns in ways that
China needs to change (see Save
More, below). For middle-class and
rich Chinese, those costs are a more
manageable responsibility but one
that nonetheless ripples through
their economic decision-making.
Still, there are benefits that
balance the financial hardship:
grandparents tutor young children
while Mom and Dad work; they
acculturate the youngest generation
to the values of family and nation;
they provide a sense of cultural
continuity that helps bind a
society. China needs to make obvious
changes to its elder-care system as
it becomes a wealthier society, but
as millions of U.S. families make
the brutal decision about whether to
send aging parents into nursing
homes, a bigger dose of the Chinese
ethos may well be returning to
America.
4. Save More
You've now heard it so many times,
you can probably repeat it in your
sleep. President Obama will no doubt
make the point publicly when he gets
to Beijing: the Chinese need to
spend more; they need to consume
more; they need believe it or not
to become more like Americans, for
the sake of the global economy.
And it's all true. But the other
side of that equation is that the
U.S. needs to save more. For the
moment, American households actually
are doing so. After the
personal-savings rate dipped to zero
in 2005, the shock of the economic
crisis last year prompted people to
snap shut their wallets. Now that
it's pouring, in other words,
American households have decided to
save for a rainy day. The savings
rate is currently about 4% and has
gone as high as 6% this year.
In China, the household-savings rate
exceeds 20%. It is partly for
straightforward policy reasons. As
we've seen, wage earners are
expected to care for not only their
children but also their aging
parents. And there is, to date, only
the flimsiest of publicly funded
health care and pension systems,
which increases incentives for
individuals to save while they are
working. But China, like many other
East Asian countries, is a society
that has esteemed personal financial
prudence for centuries. There is no
chance that will change anytime
soon, even if the government creates
a better social safety net and
successfully encourages greater
consumer spending.
Why does the U.S. need to learn a
little frugality? Because healthy
savings rates, including government
and business savings, are one of the
surest indicators of a country's
long-term financial health. High
savings lead, over time, to
increased investment, which in turn
generates productivity gains,
innovation and job growth. In short,
savings are the seed corn of a good
economic harvest.
The U.S. government thus needs to
get in on the act as well. By
running perennial deficits, it is
dis-saving, even as households save
more. Peter Orszag, Obama's Budget
Director, recently called the U.S.
budget deficits unsustainable this
year's is $1.4 trillion and he's
right. To date, the U.S. has seemed
unable to have what Indiana Governor
Mitch Daniels has called an "adult
conversation" about the consequences
of spending so much more than is
taken in. That needs to change. And
though Hu Jintao and the rest of the
Chinese leadership aren't inclined
to lecture visiting Presidents, he
might gently hint that Beijing is
getting a little nervous about the
value of the dollar which has
fallen 15% since March, in large
part because of increasing fears
that America's debt load is becoming
unmanageable.
That's what happens when you're the
world's biggest creditor: you get to
drop hints like that, which would be
enough by themselves to create
international economic havoc if they
were ever leaked. (Every time any
official in Beijing muses publicly
about seeking an alternative to the
U.S. dollar for the $2.1 trillion
China holds in reserve, currency
traders have a heart attack.) If
Americans became a bit more like the
Chinese if they saved more and
spent less, consistently over time
they wouldn't have to worry about
all that.
5. Look over the Horizon
The energy that so many outsiders
feel when they are in China and that
President Obama may see when he is
there comes not just from the
frenetic activity that is visible
everywhere. It comes also from a
sense that it's harnessed to
something bigger. The government
isn't frantically building all this
infrastructure just to create
make-work jobs. And kids aren't
studying themselves sleepless
because it's a lot of fun. A few
years ago, I interviewed Zhang Xin,
a young man from a deeply poor
agricultural province in central
China. His parents were wheat
farmers and lived in a tiny one-room
house next to the fields. He had
graduated from Tsinghua University
China's MIT and gotten a job as a
software engineer at Huawei, the
Cisco of China. His success, Zhang
told me one day, had changed his
family forever. None of his
descendants would "ever work in the
wheat fields again. Not my children.
Not their children. That life is
over." (And neither would his
parents. They moved to prosperous
Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong,
soon after he started his new job.)
Multiply that young man's story by
millions, and you get a sense of
what a forward-looking country this
once very backward society has
become. A smart American who lived
in China for years and who wants to
avoid being identified publicly
(perhaps because he'd be labeled a
"panda hugger," the timeworn epithet
tossed at anyone who has anything
good to say about China) puts it
this way: "China is striving to
become what it has not yet become.
It is upwardly mobile, consciously,
avowedly and as its track record
continues to strengthen proudly
so."
Proudly so, because as Zhang
understood, hard work today means a
much better life decades from now
for those who will inherit what he
helped create. And if that sounds
familiar to Americans marooned,
for the moment, in the deepest
recession in 26 years it should.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1938671-1,00.html
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